Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Demographic Trends Favor Republicans

Bruce Bartlett on the trend of consistent Republican States to be growing in population (and therefore getting more votes in the Electoral College), while Democratic leaning States are losing votes overall.

What this means is that if the population distribution in 2000 had been reflected in the Electoral College that year, Bush would have won 278 electoral votes instead of the 271 he was officially awarded, and Gore would have had 259 votes instead of the 266 he got. If the final electoral vote had been 278 to 259 instead of the actual 271 to 266, much of the rancor over the results might have been avoided.

The 2010 census is likely to accelerate the Republican advantage. According to preliminary estimates by Polidata.org, 13 electoral votes will probably shift before the 2012 election. States that Bush carried twice will gain another seven net electoral votes, and those carried by Gore and Kerry will lose six net seats.
If voting patterns aren't affected by the increasing population density in the red states, this will really change the face of American politics.

Not Enough Jews In Canada To Hate?

Jacob Kornblum, a Canadian, evidently thought so. He made the effort to travel to the West Bank city of Hebron to attack teenage Jewish girls.

I wonder if his side of the story would be any less damning... there is insufficient media coverage at this point to really know what happened.

Vancouver Growing In Spite of Having No Children

Who needs a magical inability to have children when the West's child-free culture is already headed that way?

Some of Vancouver's fast growing suburbs are starting to close elementary schools because there aren't enough kids left to fill them.

Saturday, February 24, 2007

The Kurds In Iraq Are Doing Well

Some photos and a description of what life is like in the Kurd controlled portion of Iraq.

Construction was everywhere: new roads, new schools, and new hospitals. Almost every car was shiny and new. The new houses were all several stories with impressive porches, hot tubs, and flat screen TV's.

Now that they have the freedom to spend some money on themselves they are going for bright and flashy. Maybe it is all a bit overdone, but I think I can understand. This is a bit like California, where too much is just enough to show your change of fortune.
It's nice that, at the very least, one of the previously "most oppressed" groups in the region is now thriving.

Thursday, February 22, 2007

Giuliani's New York Accomplishments

Deroy Murdock writes about Rudy Giuliani's tenure as mayor of New York, and his prospects in the Republican primary.

Like a stack of scratched records, pundits repeatedly dismiss Rudolph W. Giuliani’s presidential prospects because of his “social liberalism.” True, the former New York mayor’s views on abortion, guns, and gays (despite his opposition to same-sex marriage) clash with those of many socially conservative Republican primary voters.

However, socio-cons care about more than just these three important matters. On school choice, welfare reform, adoption, and quality of life, evangelicals cannot quibble with Giuliani’s achievements. His Bush-like immigration proposals are no more liberal than the president’s. Socio-cons also like to see violent criminals incarcerated and terrorists incinerated. No Rightist calls Giuliani Leftist on that.
While I would prefer a candidate that takes stemming illegal immigration seriously, Giuliani's position is better than Bush's for several reasons:
  • He believes in aggressively deporting illegals who get arrested. I can't find the reference, but I believe he had the INS notified each time an illegal was released from a New York jail - apparently they never took advantage of the opportunities. This was at the same time he was refusing to cooperate with the INS in any other way.
  • He believes in assimilation, and has actually taken action to encourage it.
He's not perfect, but I rather like him. This could easily become a Giuliani fan site.

Dubious Gifts

I've read enough cases of extraordinary memory capabilities to not doubt that they exist, but I still find them very puzzling.

McGaugh has spent decades studying how such things as stress hormones and emotions affect memory, and at first he thought AJ's memories were of such emotional power that she couldn't forget them.

But that hypothesis fell short of the mark when it became obvious that "the woman who can't forget" remembers trivial details as clearly as major events. Asked what happened on Aug 16, 1977, she knew that Elvis Presley had died, but she also knew that a California tax initiative passed on June 6 of the following year, and a plane crashed in Chicago on May 25 of the next year, and so forth. Some may have had a personal meaning for her, but some did not.
Why do these gifted people seem to never end up any more successful than an average person? I'd like to believe that a perfect memory (rather than a sieve-like memory) would boost my own success by an order of magnitude at the very least.

Can it really be the case that memory abilities aren't all that important to general success? At the very least you could be valuable member of a mafia crime family that doesn't want to write anything down!

The closest person to having a perfect memory that I personally know is this guy; he can perfectly quote dialog from movies/shows that he hasn't seen in decade or more. He has yet to find a practical application for this skill though.

Karl Rove's Kids Too Good To Work For a Living

Karl Rove has finally done something to really make me angry; he is reported to have said that he supports the Bush administration's open borders immigration plan because:

I don't want my 17-year-old son to have to pick tomatoes or make beds in Las Vegas.
Dude, that is soooo weak. There is usually at least a little truth in most stereotypes, and you can see how the Republicans ended up being characterized as the party of rich snobs.

Wednesday, February 21, 2007

Penny Arcade Gets Scoop on the Profile of a Murderer

By attacking the suggestion that video games turned those teens into murderers, Penny Arcade (an online comic strip) ended up communicating with a person that knows one of the killers.

Your news post about the kids and the homeless man yesterday made me sick to my stomach, before I even read the CNN article. I knew what it was going to be about before even reading the article. It was not the article itself, or even your post that made me sick, it was the fact that I know this boy. Or, rather that I could be considered one of the “parents” of this boy.

The boy’s father and I have been together for almost seven years, and I had what I guess could be called a “stepmother” relationship with the kid. To say that living with this kid was hell would be a complete understatement.
Assuming their source is legitimate, PA now has more in depth coverage of the event than any other news source. As the number of venues for telling one's story grow, I suspect we will see more people bypassing the MSM and talking with a publisher that they have something in common with.

Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Biofuels Will Cause Mass Starvation

Not to beat this point to death, but ethanol isn't the only misguided attempt to reduce the use of fossil fuels.

To run our cars and buses and lorries on biodiesel, in other words, would require 25.9m hectares. There are 5.7m in the United Kingdom.(8) Switching to green fuels requires four and half times our arable area. Even the EU’s more modest target of 20% by 2020 would consume almost all our cropland.

If the same thing is to happen all over Europe, the impact on global food supply will be catastrophic: big enough to tip the global balance from net surplus to net deficit. If, as some environmentalists demand, it is to happen worldwide, then most of the arable surface of the planet will be deployed to produce food for cars, not people.
The author, George Monbiot, has the interesting perspective that we really should be trying to reduce fossil fuel consumption by 90%, but that most proposals to do it are stupid. I think I'll try to read his book one of these days...

Via NRO.

Monday, February 19, 2007

The Canadian Way of Sticking it to Iran

It took an accidental crisis to get the final immigration review, but Amir Kazemian is now free to stay in Canada.

What got his application for residency approved this time when it was rejected so many times before?

Assuming that the background material in the papers on him is correct, this is exactly the kind of "refugee" Canada should be accepting. Unlike all the extended families that are normally welcomed in, he seems to have marketable skills. And it removes one more able body from Iran, while highlighting the fact that Iran is run by very bad people.

The whole "calling the cops while under an arrest warrant" thing is very strange though. I'm guessing that his lawyer must have misrepresented the whole "sanctuary in churches" situation to him.

Sunday, February 18, 2007

Book Review: The Case for Democracy

Written by Natan Sharansky and Ron Dermer, The Case for Democracy applies the lessons of the Cold War to the current middle eastern based conflicts. Although filled with insightful observations and an outstanding history lesson, the book glosses over a number of tricky implementation details with regards to future policy suggestions. The authors are also eerily quiet on the US' current Middle Eastern strategy; one can easily imagine that they are critical of it, but don't want to discourage one of the few leaders with "moral clarity".

Much of the first half of the book is dedicated to convincing the skeptical reader that democracies are inherently more stable and better neighbors than non-democracies. I'm not convinced that isn't trivially obvious to most people, and would have rather heard a discussion about the costs of spreading democracy. In the end they make a pretty compelling case that democracy is good, but never tackle the issue that sometimes the cost of encouraging democracy might be greater than leaving things alone (or encouraging non-democratic reforms).

One historical lesson that the Western media needs to take to heart is that news, opinion polls, and elections from non-free countries cannot be reported as fact. Sharansky and Dermer define a free society in the following way:

A society is free if people have a right to express their views without fear of arrest, imprisonment, or physical harm.
To report (as CNN liked to do) that Saddam Hussein received 99% of the popular vote without calling the elections a sham in the same breath is to do your audience a tremendous disservice.

Israel, on the other hand, needs to learn that making concessions in exchange for nothing is not a winning strategy for peace. Sharansky and Dermer provide numerous examples of the various Israeli governments all trying to demonstrate "good faith" and then regretting it afterwards. They are also very critical of Israel for effectively installing Arafat as the Palestinian dictator rather than encouraging a democratic movement. In this regard I think that Sharansky and Dermer are mistaken; if Israel had replaced Arafat after he made it clear that he was not going to encourage any kind of peace (or installed a non-terrorist as dictator), things may have gone a lot better. But to continue making concessions was a case of throwing good money after bad.

The book's central premise is that all people want to be free, regardless of whether that involves discarding core tenets of their ancient culture. Sharansky and Dermer invoke the WWII examples of Japan, Germany and Italy as nations that were largely be believed to be un-democratizable, and yet have become upstanding world citizens. However, they make another mistep here by failing to address the difference between the total devastation that those nations endured and the current Middle East conflicts where great pains are taken to minimize collateral damage and avoid confrontation with the power that is pulling the strings of the "resistance" movements.

Using the Helsinki Agreements as a model for the way forward, Sharansky and Dermer believe that the most effective method of combating terrorist supporting nations is to tie their internal support for basic human rights to trade and technology transfers. The book describes how those agreements and support from the United States forced the USSR to choose between maintaining its power through fear and falling even farther behind economically and technologically. Sharansky and Dermer argue that the same tools would work against all non-democratic regimes.

It is a very attractive idea, but the reader is left wondering whether it applies now as well as it did to the USSR during the Cold War, which had no greater power to which it could appeal to for help. It doesn't seem likely that Palestine, Iraq, or Afghanistan could be pressured in this way as long as Iran has a free hand. And Russia could easily (and probably would) undermine efforts to press for change in Iran.

Friday, February 16, 2007

Don't Mess WIth Air Mauritania

What's the world coming to when you can't hijack a plane and not get boiling water thrown in your face?

The man was standing in the middle aisle when the pilot carried out his manoeuvre, and he fell to the floor, dropping one of his two 7mm pistols. Flight attendants then threw boiling water from a coffee machine in his face and at his chest, and some 10 people jumped on the man and beat him, the Spanish official said.
I mean really, where's the respect?

Somehow I don't think your asylum request usually gets granted if you hijack a plane to get there.

Thursday, February 15, 2007

Is Greenpeace Threatening Me?

This Greenpeace ad is creepy on so many levels. Who still donates money to these clowns?



Via SDA.

Wednesday, February 14, 2007

Valley of the Wolves

Billy Zane must be desperate for work if he's agreeing to play the evil American in Muslim propaganda films.

Valley of the Wolves, by the Turkish director Serdan Akar, shows crazed American GIs massacring innocent guests at a wedding party and scenes in which a Jewish surgeon removes organs from Iraqi prisoners in a style reminiscent of the Nazi death camp doctor Joseph Mengele.

[...]

The production went on general release in Germany a fortnight ago and has had full houses ever since. More than 130,000 people, most of them young Muslims, saw the film in the first five days of its opening. At a packed cinema in a largely Turkish immigrant district of Berlin last week, Valley of the Wolves was being watched almost exclusively by young Turkish men. They clapped furiously when the Turkish hero of the film was shown blowing up a building occupied by the United States military commander in northern Iraq.

In the closing sequence, the hero is shown plunging a dagger into the heart of a US commander called Sam, played by Billy Zane. The audience responded by standing up and chanting "Allah is great!"
Via David Frum.

Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Are You Surrounded By Guns?

For entertainment value, Canadians can use the National Gun Registry to find out how many weapons are registered in their (very) general area.

Looking at the results for "V4", I gather that "prohibited" does not mean what you might assume based on a dictionary definition...

Thursday, February 01, 2007

A Really Dangerous Canary

Israel is the canary in the coal mine that is the Middle East. Basically you can be sure that if someone truly crazy (rather than crazy like a fox a la the mullahs in Iran) takes power in the Middle East, they'll move to destroy Israel. And this will be the sign to the rest of the world that it is time to start leveling cities.

Jacques Chirac seems to endorse this view, but with the added hope that Israel's death throes will largely solve the problem for the rest of us.

PARIS, Jan. 31 — President Jacques Chirac said this week that if Iran had one or two nuclear weapons, it would not pose a big danger, and that if Iran were to launch a nuclear weapon against a country like Israel, it would lead to the immediate destruction of Tehran.
What I have always wondered is whether or not Israel would be particularly discriminating in their final counterattack. If you're entering the final battle, know you don't have long, know you have extra nukes after the core counterattack, why not start smashing the other countries that will be so happy to see you go? And then on top of that you have all the nuclear equipped subs that will have nowhere to return home to, and shortly no chain of command to restrain their captains.