Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Endorsements for Surrey BC's Municipal Elections

Briefly, my endorsements (by process of somewhat superficial elimination) for the local Surrey elections. This is a work in progress - come back later to see the final result.

Candidates for Mayor
(Pick One)

Candidates for Councillor (Pick Up To Eight)
Candidates for School Trustee (Pick Up To Six)

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Frum's "Standby Oil Tax"

David Frum (Canadian columnist and ex-Bush speechwriter) is proposing a standby oil tax to ensure there remains an incentive to develop alternate energy sources in the face of falling oil prices.

The answer is to prevent the cost of oil to the consumer from declining any further. Let consumers pocket and benefit from the decline to US$65. Then impose a stand-by excise tax on any further declines. If oil goes to US$64, the government taxes $1. If the decline continues to $63, $2. And so on.
Frum is certainly correct that the price of oil is the only thing that will encourage the development of alternate energy sources (although in this case coal and probably domestic oil will be valid alternates...), but as usual the Devil is in the Details.

I'm trying to imagine how this could be enforced with the desired result being reached.

As an import tax based on the actual cost of the oil, it would remove all incentive to find sellers willing to charge less than the threshold value. So the price has a floor, but no tax revenue is raised. And lots of incentives to create shell companies that make a killing doing arbitrage work.

I suppose that as an import tax based on the current world price for the oil, it might work OK... It would effectively make every importer into a speculator though, and I'm not sure what that would look like.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

How Much Bush is Too Much?

One of the themes I am seeing in Oregon political advertising right now is the "voted with Bush 85% of the time" attack. I can't figure what that number means.

What kind of votes are we talking about? Voting yes for stuff that the White House has declared it supports? Because as far as I know Bush doesn't do any voting or signing until legislation has already been passed.

And then, what is the average amount of voting with Bush that a Senator or Congressman does? For members of the different parties? Surely there must be a lot of boiler-plate crap that most everyone supports... 85% actually sounds like quite a bit of dissent.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

7 Election

Whoever came up with this idea is a marketing genius. 7 Eleven is giving customers a choice of Obama or McCain cups for their coffee, and then counting each cup as a vote. Not looking so good for McCain thus far.

The sad thing is that this isn't much less secure than Diebold based elections, and a fair bit better in terms of paper trails and auditing...

Via All Points Blog.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Dennis Schornack Responds

Dennis Schornack was appointed to be the Commissioner of the International Boundary Commission (IBC) by the Bush administration. After a disagreement over the handling of a wall along the US-Canadian border, and the subsequent lawsuit, the Bush administration dismissed Schornack. Schornack maintains that his dismissal was unlawful, and continues to challenge it in court.

When Mr. Schornack left a comment on my blog last year I invited him to answer a few questions for my readers. At the time, he felt his hands were tied by the legal situation and declined. Luckily for us, he has had a change of heart.

What follows is Mr. Schornack's response to around a dozen questions I sent him last year. The hyperlinks were not present in the questions when originally presented, so it is not fair to assume Mr. Schornack was aware of the things I previously wrote at those locations.


Background

When you were offered the position of head of the International Boundary Commission, was it represented as a lifelong appointment?

When I was asked to be U.S. Commissioner for the International Boundary Commission, there was no mention of tenure, but then there was no mention of the treaty either. I read the treaty after I agreed to do the job in addition to my job as U.S. Chairman of the International Joint Commission. My intention all along was to resign when Bush's term was over, thus creating a vacancy for the next President to fill in accord with the treaty. That said, the treaty is clear as to how commissioners may come and go.
In general, when do you feel lifelong government appointments are appropriate? If, for example, the United States and Canada were to renegotiate the treaty that defines the IBC, would you argue for keeping the clause that suggests the Commissioner cannot be fired? And has your opinion changed since you started the job?
As for life tenure - that was never an issue - keeping the boundary clear of obstructions to facilitate security and maintain diplomatic harmony with Canada was the only objective. That said, I understand why the treaty was written as it was: There are times when border disputes must be settled by the Commissioners, and the Commissioners must be free from the direct political influence of their respective governments in order to stick to the treaty and stay neutral. The example of the Leus' wall is precisely one of those times. My "firing" was over a disagreement about how the treaty was being implemented - I went by the pure language about "keeping the vista clear of all permanent obstructions," and the DOJ was heading in the direction of favoring private property rights (keeping the wall).
The Job

How effective is the vista in terms of policing the border? Are there any statistics on how many people are caught illegally crossing the border due to surveillance made possible by the vista?
I can't comment on how effective border policing is - that was not our job. We simply supported Border Patrol and RCMP by keeping the vista clear of obstructions behind which people might hide. We often cooperated with BP and RCMP in that they would ask us to clear sections of the boundary that were troublesome - e.g., where there was evidence of human traffic like footpaths and trash. We worked those requests into our schedule for clearing. Also, BP and RCMP have begun to funnel money to the IBC for clearing projects they cannot do themselves because only IBC staff and contractors are authorized to work on both sides of the boundary line during a project. IBC employees get ID cards enabling free movement within the border zone.

I don't have any statistics on border runners being caught, but I know from experience that many cameras watch the vista and I assume that video surveillance contributes greatly to enforcement. Cameras cannot see through walls or trees or other obstructions.
The media have reported that the Leus' case is the only lawsuit on record against the IBC. Roughly how many uncontested notifications of vista violation does the IBC issue to border adjacent residents each year?
On average, the IBC issued 2-3 uncontested vista violation notices each year during my tenure. I once walked the boundary in Pt. Roberts (WA/BC border) with the Canadian Commissioner (at that time, Michael O'Sullivan) where the encroachments into the vista were on the CA side. Forty-three homeowners moved barriers, fences, etc. from the vista after a door-to-door person-to-person discussion. That experience and its results led me to suggest a personal visit to the Leus since we were going to be in the area anyway to hold a hearing on new markers for Boundary Bay. Otherwise, we could have simply sent a letter. As it turned out, the personal touch didn't work, but I still think the attempt was worth the effort.
I understand that the Canadian branch of the IBC has not issued its annual report in 8 years; is the US side just as far behind, and if so, why?
The annual reports of the IBC are behind schedule and have been for some time. The staff is small, and resources are scarce, so the reports have been on the back burner. We were working on bringing them up to date when the Leu situation hit the fan.
Canada has a law (the International Boundary Commission Act) that clearly defines the size of the vista and the consequences of violating it. Is there a US law that matches the Canadian one?
The language of the Canadian law is taken directly from the minutes of the first Commission meetings where the width of the vista was agreed upon (initially it was 30 ft., but later changed to 20 ft.). The treaty is self-executing in the U.S. and there is no other law than the treaty itself. This has not been a problem since the treaty is so clear and the practices so well established. The Leu lawsuit is a first - for this reason it will establish a great deal about the strength of the treaties, the role of the IBC, and the role of the governments.
The Controversy

Your legal representatives have both been (distantly) involved in unrelated controversy with the Bush administration. Elliot Feldman once accused Canada of secretly financing the Republicans, and Michael McKay's brother was one of the US Attorneys dismissed in 2006. Did their personal opinions regarding the Bush administration factor into your decision to retain them?
Peter and I chose our legal representatives based solely on their expertise in international law and experience in court. Dr. Feledman has written 7 books on international law, taught at Harvard, and had 20 years of experience litigating the softwood lumber cases. McKay is likewise highly experienced local counsel out in Seattle. The experience with Ca made my Ca colleague more comfortable.
The lawsuit contesting your firing is based on a literal interpretation of the 1925 treaty between the US and Canada. This same treaty also says that the Commissioner of the IBC must be an "Expert Geographer or Surveyor". Do you have experience that meets that requirement? If not, how do you justify requiring that parts of the treaty are honored while others are ignored?
I am not a licensed surveyor, but my deputy is, and it has been an established practice that so long as there is at least one licensed surveyor on each side, the commissioner need not be one. I was not the first non-surveyor to serve in the position.
What's Next?

The media coverage of your case consistently refers to you as a "lifelong Republican". Would you still describe yourself like this?
"Lifelong Republican" is a fair description of my life up until recently. I have become a supporter and contributor to the campaign of Barack Obama because I believe that he is the stronger of the two candidates when it comes to honoring America's treaty responsibilities. McCain has said things that indicate he would follow in Bush's footsteps.
If you choose to not appeal Judge Pechman's ruling, or if you exhaust all avenues of appeal, what do you plan to do next? Would you consider taking another political appointment if it was offered?
Your last question has largely been answered. I am appealing because I believe in the treaty, my oath to uphold it, and in an open boundary with Canada. Fences won't work on the Northern border and are repulsive to both Ca and U.S. citizens.

As you know, I am now the Exec. Director of the Michigan Recreation and Parks Association. I love my new job and especially the people I work with.

One thing i want to correct for your readers: Despite those who claim that I behaved like some power-crazed bureaucrat, they were not there. Peter Sullivan and I knew exactly what we were doing when we met with the Leus. We did everything we could to avoid being officious from dressing casually to listening carefully. We knew the Leus were not going to be happy about moving the wall, but we also knew that the border would fall like dominoes if we made an exception on the 49th parallel as requested by the Leus. We offered to pay for removing the wall, but we could not offer to rebuild it. We thought that by explaining and listening, we could avoid a dispute - i had witnessed such a successful approach in the past - but we were wrong.

Depicting me as an impersonal object of hate is a strategy that the Pacific Legal Fund loves to employ, but that is the political side of the lawsuit and one I must painfully endure. I was just doing a job to the best of my ability and understanding, and if I had it to do all over again, nothing would change. I am a simple person; I try to do what I believe is right every moment of my life; this approach has served me well.
Many thanks to Mr. Schornack for responding to the questions, particularly in such an open manner.

McCain and Republican Failures

As conservatives like Christopher Buckley begin to abandon the good ship McCain, a common desperate response is "imagine the damage Obama, the most left-leaning Senator, could do as President while both the Senate and House of Representatives are controlled by the Democrats".

Don't get me wrong - I'm totally sympathetic to that argument. I fully expect the coming Obama presidency to be like a fire sale at a liquor store across from an AA meeting... or some other more coherent analogy. Bulls in china shops, you get the drift.

But what reason have the Republicans given us to believe that they would do much better? As I recall, there was a recent two year period (2002-2004) in which the Republicans controlled Congress and the White House. And yet McCain still didn't manage to accomplish any of the reforms he's always talking about, the ones that supposedly would have save us from economic doom.

So is McCain all talk, or does he command so little respect within his own party that he can't get anything done? Not great options.

My take is: Yes, Obama will be (at least marginally) more disastrous than McCain. But there is no hope of reforming the Democrats into a party I can wholeheartedly support. The Republicans on the other hand have nuggets of good in the rot - enough turnover and they might turn into something worth voting for.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

THIS Close to Cursing Out an Old Lady

Long story short, my car was parked in a handicapped spot because the parking lot was otherwise completely full, and while loading my kid in an elderly woman (who was not disabled and had one of the other parking spots) did a very over-the-top tsk tsk tsk routine. I'm proud to say that while my response was snippy, there was no cursing involved.

How is it reasonable to expect parking restrictions to be respected in that kind of situation?

I am reminded of an episode of Bullshit! in which they followed around a parking violation vigilante as she photographed license plates of cars parked illegally in handicapped spots. The people she actively confronted seemed to generally be low-lives, but man I understand the fury they expressed. Hello? Who do you think pays for these damn spots, and the enforcement thereof? That would be me, middle-class sucker taxpayer.

Anyway, it got me to thinking about the "family" parking spots at stores like Save-On-Foods and Toys "R" Us. Those rules for these prime spots are not enforced (by the police, at least), and yet people seem to leave them free voluntarily except as a last resort. Kind of calls into question the need for laws about who can park in what spots (ignoring the anti-property rights nature of such laws).

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

What Crybabies

I've seen all I can stomach of tonight's Presidential debate...

"Waaah, you said hurtful things about me and Palin!"

"Waaah, Palin's audience members said hurtful things about me!"

Would it be too much to ask for a candidate who responds with "Man up. This is kids' stuff compared to international politics" when accused of being hurtful? As much as I value civility, all this expressing of hurt feelings is revolting.

Also, Obama's best strategy when confronted with Ayers would be to say something like "Look, Chicago politics are filthy and I had to associate with some real scumbags to get where I am. I promise to not let a single one of them in the White House if I'm elected."

Bob Barr for President.

Thursday, October 09, 2008

Do You Understand The Words That Are Coming Out Of My Mouth?

I'm guessing that Stephane Dion won't be doing any more interviews with CTV. CTV aired the outtakes of an interview in which Dion has a great deal of trouble responding to a fairly basic hypothetical question: What would have done differently if you had been Prime Minister instead of Harper?



I wonder if this is what it looks like when Western candidates do interviews in French... Or else he just didn't have a good answer, which wouldn't be that surprising given the similarities between Liberal and Conservative platforms.

Via Double Blind.

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Dramatic Stock Market Crash Photos

Bandarlog offers some funny advice to the media on appropriate photos for various levels of financial distress.

When markets fall 4%, you want to convey that things are so serious that immediate action is called for -- a trader yelling into a phone is a good call here.
Via Megan McArdle.

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Jack Layton Economics

NDP Leader Jack Layton is proposing to cut interest on credit card debt to five per cent above prime to help Canadians cope with the growing international financial crisis.
Leaving aside the relationship between credit card debt and the "growing international financial crisis", this is a pretty goofy idea. Let us enumerate the really obvious effects of this plan:
  1. Canadians will go deeper into debt and start carrying larger balances.
  2. Credit card companies will start reducing lines of credit, and canceling outright the cards of more marginal clients.
  3. Credit card companies will lay off some number of people in response to the reduced profits (and workload).
What are the odds that Layton actually wants to see any of these effects?

Monday, October 06, 2008

TV Review: Pushing Daisies

Quirky does not begin to describe the weirdness of Pushing Daisies.

The basic premise is that there exists a guy who can, within a fairly arbitrary set of rules, bring dead people back to life. The miraculousness of this ability is largely ignored (thus far) in favor of being used as comedy and plot devices.

The sets and props are beautifully artificial (although often poorly rendered), the larger story arc is touching, and the characters are hilarious.

I can't recommend it enough.

RRSP Lessons Learned

After recently being "downsized" I had to deal with my company RRSP account held with Manulife. This turned out to be a somewhat expensive education in what not to do.

Don't Assume Your RRSP Provider is Competent

Even four weeks after the big event, Manulife still hadn't processed the fact that my employment status had changed. This resulted in my first transfer request not moving the employer matching funds that can't be withdrawn until the employment relationship has ended.

Convert Holdings to Cash Before Moving an RRSP (unless moving in-kind)

While waiting (up to 4 weeks!) for my second transfer request to get the remainder of my funds, the financial world ended and the stock market tanked. Over a 10% drop in value before liquidation. Thankfully not a huge sum in total, but... ouch?

Friday, October 03, 2008

Multiparty Debates (more than two)

Watching a local debate recently and the Canadian leaders debate last night, it became clear that there are subtleties in the multiparty format that can be exploited by a savvy participant.

Composure Means Everything to the Incumbent
When you have 4 or 5 candidates all picking on the guy currently in power, they look like bullies. If the poor bastard stays calm and collected under fire (as Harper and Hiebert seem to be masters at), they look very impressive in comparison. If I was running in opposition I would let the others do my attacking for me and try to present an alternative strategy.

You Get To Make Unchallenged Statements
In both of the recent debates I have seen, the flow would go something like this: Opposition says terrible things about incumbent, incumbent is given a chance to respond, and typically that topic is closed in the interests of time. So both Hiebert and Harper would essentially call their attackers liars, make some claims that seemingly proved their point, and that would be that. In a two person debate there is much more back and forth on contentious issues. Huge advantage to the incumbent.

Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Rosh Hashanah Trumps Financial Crisis?

So we are in the middle of financial crisis, but it is less important than a fairytale holiday? That doesn't sound very much like a crisis to me.

I expect Nancy Pelosi will be blaming her inability to pass a pork bill on the Jews next...